THE price of gold crept above $4,500 an ounce again Tuesday, while silver breached $83 in early morning trading Wednesday, as the race to safe haven — and industrial in the case of silver — assets continued, with one expert saying he “fully expects” $5,000 gold in 2026 due to central bank buying.
Geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about the trajectory of US interest rates were key to the surge in the yellow metal in 2025, with central banks buying up gold at scale.
The recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas and subsequent detention in the US has contributed to further “de-dollarisation” and accelerated the rush to safe haven assets. Increasingly, the dollar is no longer being perceived as “the obvious hedge”.
Silver, meanwhile, is being boosted by its growing industrial usage, in solar, EVs and critical AI infrastructure.
De-dollarisation trend
Tony Redondo, Founder at Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, said: “The “bullion boom” of 2025 has surged into 2026, driven by a triple engine of macroeconomic, geopolitical and industrial factors.
“Safe haven buying spiked following the US military operation in Venezuela and President Maduro’s detention. Simultaneously, a “de-dollarisation” trend has seen central banks in Poland, India and China aggressively swapping dollar reserves for gold.
“Persistent US fiscal deficits and anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts have lowered real yields, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets.”
According to Rick Kanda, Managing Director at The Gold Bullion Company, 2025 was a record year for the yellow metal and one of the best since the 1970s, “breaking records that none of us expected”.
He continued: “It’s predicted that by the end of 2026, gold could rise to $5,000 per troy ounce and, thanks to its rise throughout 2025, I fully expect this could be the case.
“Global central banks are expected to maintain their gold buying momentum, which will be key to gold hitting that $5,000 value mark. As we move into the new year, I predict that gold will continue to see significant increases, especially if current inflation and uncertainty trends persist.
“Rising geopolitical tensions between countries across the globe will continue to drive investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold that will continue to retain its worth during uncertain times.
“Other factors driving gold price upwards include challenges in mining, limiting production and ultimately affecting supply when demand remains high. Overall, it looks to me that 2026 will be another extremely successful year for gold investment that’s bound to be a part of many investment portfolios.”
Trend is your friend
On the investment front, David Belle, Trader at Fink Money, said central bank buying is the key driver of the gold price surge and that “the trend is your friend”.
He continued: “With geopolitical tensions continuing to rise, it’s likely metals will retain more upside going into February at least. We saw yesterday that gold is now the largest component of global reserves, not the dollar — although gold is still predominantly priced in USD.”
Anita Wright, Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management, added: “If the US dollar no longer feels like the obvious hedge and bonds do not offer the protection investors expect, gold becomes the standout “edge” — the asset people reach for when they would rather not own credit risk.
“On that basis, the path of least resistance remains higher, and silver can still have further to run, particularly if the gold-to-silver ratio continues to normalise. The risk for investors is that breakouts are rarely smooth: these markets can be violently volatile, and pullbacks within a new range are normal.”
Silver squeeze
Wright continued: “After years of being pushed lower in the paper market and effectively suppressed, silver has broken out into a new trading range — roughly $65 to $90.
“Add in a tightening supply-and-demand backdrop and what looks like a “silver squeeze” and risk has simply started to express itself in price.”
Redondo agreed that right supply and strong demand is pivotal to the current surge in silver. He said: “Silver faces its fifth consecutive year of supply deficits, bolstered by its US Critical Mineral status due to essential roles in AI data centres, EVs and solar tech.
“Bank of America suggests a mere 14% rise in investment demand could push gold to $5,000, while Goldman Sachs targets $85–$100 for silver.
“However, if “sticky” inflation prevents rate cuts, the rally’s foundation may crumble, potentially sparking a sharp correction toward $3,500 gold.”
