MONTHLY property transactions were down on one year ago in October as experts warned “cautious buyers are testing the water, not diving in”.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in October 2025 is 98,450, 2% lower than October 2024 and 2% higher than September 2025, government data showed.
This is the highest seasonally adjusted residential transaction figure since March 2025.
The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK non-residential transactions in October 2025 is 10,250, 29% lower than October 2024 and 4% higher than September 2025.
Experts said the figures reflect Stamp Duty thresholds returning to pre-2022 levels in April 2025 and October being a month before Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget which was the focus of intense discussion.
Transactions will tick up in December
Samuel Mather-Holgate, Managing Director & IFA at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial, said speculation about November’s Budget led to the downturn in transactions.
He added: “Rachel Reeves delay and Hokey Cokey Budget put the frighteners on the housing market. Sellers delayed and buyers retreated.
“Now we know there wasn’t much substance to it, it’s widely expected that transactions will tick up in December.”
Laura Purkess, Personal Finance Expert at Investing Insiders, said it was no surprise that transactions were down.
She continued: “The housing market is often shaky before a Budget, but it pretty much stalled ahead of the Autumn Budget last year amid rampant speculation around tax and rule changes. With the chancellor deciding to delay the Budget date to late November, the period impacted by that was extended in 2025.
“So, it’s no surprise transactions were considerably down in October during the height of the rumour mill, with many households choosing to ‘wait and see’ before making any decisions.”
Pre-Budget uncertainty clearly dampened momentum
Babek Ismayil, CEO at homebuying platform OneDome, said buyers are being cautious.
He added: “The October data shows a market that’s stabilising rather than accelerating. Residential transactions edging up on September but still below last year points to cautious buyers testing the water, not diving in.
“Pre-Budget uncertainty clearly dampened momentum, particularly for discretionary movers. I’d expect November and December to show a modest uptick as confidence improves and rate cuts feed through.
“For 2026, the outlook is steady rather than spectacular: gradual growth in transactions, driven by better affordability and lender competition, but still highly sensitive to confidence and policy clarity.”
Hesitation is still clear
Omer Mehmet, Managing Director at Trinity Finance, agreed that the market is hesitant but he believes confidence will return in 2026.
He continued: “October’s figures suggest the market is slowly regaining its footing, but hesitation is still clear. The month-on-month rise shows underlying demand is there, yet being below last year highlights how uncertainty — particularly ahead of the Budget — has kept many buyers on the sidelines.
“I’d expect a firmer pickup towards the end of the year as rates ease and confidence returns. Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate a more settled market with modest transaction growth, assuming no major policy shocks and continued support from lenders.”
