BROKERS and property experts have said the housing market could be busier than usual this spring, especially for first-time buyers, as swap rates look set to head further south on the back of today’s sharp drop in inflation, with a base rate cut next month now looking far more likely.
One said falling swap and mortgage rates should “ease some of the pressure on the millions coming off five-year fixed deals”, but another cautioned that the “final whistle” has just been blown on the buyers’ market.
In short, buyers may want to act, and act now, before house prices start to rise as the balance of power shifts back to sellers.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3% in the 12 months to January 2026, down from 3.4% in the 12 months to December 2025, Office for National Statistics revealed today.
On a monthly basis, CPI fell by 0.5% in January 2026, compared with a fall of 0.1% in January 2025.
Experts said mortgage rates, for first-time buyers in particular, have already been edging down, and that this latest data could bring even better news for those aspiring to get onto the ladder.
Boost for first-time buyers
Patricia Ogunfeibo, founder and non-practicing Solicitor at London-based tenant2owner, a UK platform helping tenants understand their chances of homeownership, said: “It’s starting to look like a very positive period for first-time buyers, who will enter spring with a huge spring in their step.
“Major lenders have already been actively targeting this demographic over the past week by cutting rates at high loan-to-values (LTVs).
“If rates continue to edge down, which now looks likely following the fall in inflation to 3%, that further boosts affordability and will create a genuine path to homeownership for many aspiring buyers.”
Darryl Dhoffer, Founder at The Mortgage Geezer, agreed, while warning that buyers may need to act fast as falling mortgage rates could turn a buyers’ market into a sellers’ market — and fast.
He said: “If you were waiting for the bottom, you’ve likely just missed it. The final whistle is blowing on the buyers’ market, and the window of opportunity is slamming shut.”
Busy spring period
Shaun Sturgess, Director at Sturgess Mortgage Solutions, also expects a busy spring: “Swap rates, which fixed rate mortgages are priced off, have already been falling and inflation dropping to 3% should see them head even further south.
“That translates into lower mortgage rates for borrowers, which improves affordability and gives more people the scope to buy. We could be in for a very busy spring period for the property market and the chances of a rate cut in March have now been boosted significantly.”
Daniel Hobbs, CEO at New Leaf Distribution a mortgage network, believes the Bank of England will now act.
He said: “Brokers have said they’ve been busy as lenders reprice downwards on the back of falling swap rates and they could be about to get even busier.
“This fall in inflation gives the Bank of England all the ammo it needs to cut the base rate and swap rates could fall further, which will benefit all borrowers but especially first-time buyers.”
Stars have aligned
Meanwhile, Riz Malik, Director at R3 Wealth, is expecting lenders to further cut rates in the days ahead, but said additional measures may be required to ignite the market.
He said: “The stars have aligned for the Bank of England to act and continue the rate cutting cycle. The reduction in market rates that impact fixed rate mortgages now looks set to continue, meaning lenders should have the confidence to make some decent cuts in the next couple of days.
“Will this kick-start the market? It will help, absolutely, but a bigger stimulus is needed. We need stamp duty cuts to get Britain moving but that’s not going to happen any time soon.”
Rohit Kohli, Director at The Mortgage Stop, a Romsey-based broker, warned falling inflation needs to be put into context.
He said: “Lenders have been active in recent weeks, trimming and repricing as they compete for market share. A 0.25% cut would help steady the market but we have to keep this in context. Growth is weak, unemployment has risen to 5.2% and affordability remains stretched.
“That is not the backdrop for a property boom per se, but may keep things steady. What it should do is ease some of the pressure on the millions coming off five-year fixed deals.
“Payments may still rise compared to ultra-low pandemic rates, but the jump is likely to be less severe than many feared six months ago.”
Rate cut incoming
Craig Fish, Director at Lodestone Mortgages, a London broker, said: “Inflation falling to 3% is exactly what the mortgage market has been waiting for. This gives the Bank of England a clear runway to cut rates and swap markets are already pricing that in. We could see movement as early as March.
“After a Budget-induced freeze in the fourth quarter of last year, this changes everything. Lower rates mean better affordability, and affordability drives transactions.
“If swaps fall and lenders pass cuts through, we’re looking at a potentially very busy spring. The question isn’t whether rate cuts are coming, it’s how quickly lenders respond.
“If inflation holds at or below 3%, expect real competition among lenders by April. For buyers on the sidelines since October, this is your signal, and for sellers waiting for momentum, it’s coming.
“The property market has been coiled and ready. Falling inflation has just released the spring.”
Justin Moy, Managing Director at Chelmsford-based EHF Mortgages, also believes lower borrowing costs are incoming, saying “the Bank of England will have little option but to cut rates, bringing some further cheer to mortgage holders later in the year”.
