MONTHLY property transactions have gone down in January by 5% – but experts “expect the numbers to bounce back” in the months ahead.
Figures for residential transactions in January 2026 are 5% lower, falling from 99,710 in December 2025 to 94,680 in January 2026, new data shows.
This marks the first significant decrease in transactions, following a period of stability since summer 2025.
Non-residential transactions have seen a decrease, with figures for January 6% lower relative to December 2025 and 3% higher than in January 2025.
This is the lowest monthly transaction figure since April 2025.
Expect the numbers to bounce back
Wesley Davidson, Owner at Bristol-based FD Commercial, said he isn’t surprised.
He continued: “January’s numbers don’t surprise me. The Budget created a moment of paralysis and we’re seeing the aftershock in these figures. A 28% fall in commercial transactions in a single month tells you the investment community is still waiting, reassessing whether the numbers work in the new tax environment.
“That’s a problem for supply and for the wider economy. My expectation is that the market finds its feet through the second quarter as pricing adjusts and investors recalibrate.”
Babek Ismayil, CEO at homebuying platform OneDome, said he expects the numbers to bounce back.
He added: “The fourth quarter of 2025 was unusually quiet as people chose to wait and see what was announced in the Budget. In January and February, things have really picked up, with first-time buyers particularly active as lenders cut rates and really target this demographic.
“Expect the numbers to bounce back, and then some, in future reports. One set of data like this is not representative of what’s happening on the ground now, where transaction levels are really gathering momentum.”
Certainly affected by the November Budget
Andrew Montlake, CEO at London-based Coreco, said he expects pent-up demand to feed through in the coming weeks and months.
He continued: “This fall in the number of residential property transactions was almost certainly affected by the November Budget. In the latter stages of 2025, many people put their moving and purchase ambitions on hold as they waited to see if there were any announcements that could impact their finances.
“Property transactions require certainty and a degree of confidence and the uncertainty caused by the Budget saw many households decide to sit on their hands. The figures will almost certainly improve in the months ahead as we are now seeing all that pent-up demand feed through. First-time buyers are especially active as lenders improve their affordability and rates come down.”
Dariusz Karpowicz, Director at Doncaster-based Albion Financial Advice, said first-time buyers are returning to the market.
He added: “January slowed down, but do not read too much into it. Residential transactions dropped 5% month to month, and the non-seasonally adjusted figure fell 24%, which sounds dramatic until you remember January is already quiet and the Budget had everyone holding their breath since November.
“The picture makes sense: buyers sat on their hands waiting to see what the Chancellor had planned, house prices have been outpacing wages for some time, and plenty of people are betting mortgage rates will fall further before they commit.
“Caution, not collapse. First-time buyers are already coming back as lenders sharpen their rates and affordability improves, and that pent-up demand from late 2025 is starting to move. One slow month does not a downturn make.”
We’re likely to see pent up demand re-emerge
Nouran Moustafa, Practice Principal & IFA at Roxton Wealth, said people are hesitant.
She continued: “A slowdown in transactions following the Budget isn’t surprising. Whenever there’s policy uncertainty particularly around property taxation buyers and investors tend to pause before committing. A 5% dip month on month in residential transactions suggests hesitation rather than collapse. We saw relative stability through the second half of 2025, so this looks more like a confidence wobble than a structural downturn.
“The sharper non seasonally adjusted drop reflects typical seasonal behaviour amplified by caution. January is already a slower month, but when you layer on fiscal changes or speculation around tax thresholds and stamp duty, activity naturally softens.
“What’s important is context: transactions are still broadly in line with last year’s levels. That tells me demand hasn’t disappeared, it’s waiting for clarity. If policy direction stabilises and rates continue to settle, we’re likely to see pent up demand re-emerge rather than a prolonged freeze.”
Photo by Manny Becerra on Unsplash.
