THE price of gold is rising in the wake of Donald Trump’s missile strikes on Iran – but could it hit $6,000 per ounce in the coming weeks?
Gold has already risen above $5,400 in early trading, while silver is once again edging closer to $100.
The price of gold rose to a record high of over $5,550 in late-January, while silver also reached over $120 – but by the start of February gold plummeted to about $4,700 and silver to $82.
Both are currently heading towards record levels once again.
The US and Israel both attacked Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and resulting in counter-strikes from Iran on several US allies in the Gulf, as well as vessels travelling through the oil-critical Strait of Hormuz.
Experts have warned the strikes could leave the Bank of England’s inflation forecasts in tatters, prove stagflationary for the economy and said gold and silver could spike.
They shared their views on whether gold could hit $6k per ounce after a “classic risk-off scenario”.
Few would bet against gold
Cameron Parry, Founder & CEO at TallyMoney, said “few would bet against gold” now.
He added: “Both the oil and gold price were up Monday morning, as the Strait of Hormuz and safe haven assets became the point of focus for markets. Geopolitical crises like the one unfolding currently will invariably apply upward pressure on the gold price and that’s precisely what is happening this time round.
“We are in a classic risk-off scenario and gold is the classic go-to asset. Gold was already benefiting from strong demand globally, not just from central banks but also retail investors keen to get exposure in an increasingly volatile geopolitical climate.
“That demand could now spike further as nations and individuals alike seek the safety of the world’s ultimate store of value. How high the gold price rises will depend on whether the conflict spills over into neighbouring countries, how long it takes to be resolved and, of course, the ultimate outcome. We are in a highly fluid situation with multiple variables at play but few would bet against gold.”
Riz Malik, Director at Southend-on-Sea-based R3 Wealth, said demand for gold has risen already.
He continued: “Monday morning immediately saw a sharp rise in the demand for gold. How much it will rise will depend on how prolonged this campaign is and the level of the Iranian retaliation.
“Once again global instability has been pushed to Defcon 4 and that only means one thing for precious metals. Namely, their price is set to go up.”
Sharp rise in the demand for gold
Tony Redondo, Founder at Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, said $6,000 is possible this month.
He added: “Even before Saturday’s military operations in Iran, the price of gold had catapulted up to the $5,300 level, but hitting $6,000 by next week would require a 15% surge, a feat usually reserved for total systemic collapse.
“However, while $6,000 is unlikely within days, it is a high-probability target for March or April, especially if the Strait of Hormuz is compromised on a longer term basis or the conflict broadens. Silver is closing in on $100 and its structural supply deficit makes $120 a realistic target in the months ahead as a coiled spring reaction to geopolitical fear.
“But investors should note that while fundamentals favour safe havens, parabolic moves often invite sharp cool-off profit-taking. Investors should be wary of chasing the green line during peak news cycles.”
Anita Wright, Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management, said there are more reasons as to why gold is going up in price.
She continued: “This weekend’s missile strikes will undoubtedly affect the gold price, but it is important not to confuse a catalyst with the underlying driver. Gold does not move to $6,000 because of a single weekend’s events. It moves there, if it does, because of monetary conditions.
“The deeper issue is the structure of the Western financial system. The US faces trillions in refinancing requirements alongside persistent fiscal deficits. Foreign appetite for US Treasuries shows visible strain, long-dated yields are rising, and equity valuations remain stretched. History tells us that when bond yields rise into an overvalued equity market, instability follows.
“Could gold reach $6,000 this week? No. Markets rarely move in straight lines, particularly at these magnitudes. However, over the medium term, if refinancing pressures intensify, yields rise further, and the US Federal Reserve reverts to liquidity support, materially higher gold prices become plausible.”
Chasing rapid spikes rarely ends well
Nouran Moustafa, Practice Principal & IFA at Roxton Wealth, cautioned against investing in gold for purely emotional reasons and FOMO during a time of volatility.
She added: “Gold was expected to open higher as investors moved into safe havens after the latest escalation, and so it did. However, a jump to $6,000 in days would require something far more severe such as direct energy supply disruption or broader financial market stress.
“Without that, we’re more likely to see sharp volatility than a sustained vertical rally. Silver could also benefit and typically moves more aggressively than gold in risk off moments, but a surge to $120 would need prolonged panic or a genuine supply squeeze, not just geopolitical headlines.
“For investors, this is about discipline over drama: gold can act as portfolio insurance, but chasing rapid spikes rarely ends well. Sensible allocation and risk management matter more than reacting emotionally to breaking news.”
Photo by Nancy Hughes on Unsplash.
