AVERAGE mortgage rates have flown past 5% according to Moneyfacts, with the average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today hitting 5.01%. This is up from 4.84% on Friday 6 March 2026 and is now at its highest level since 6 August 2025 (5.01%).
While some brokers hope the trend will be reversed if the conflict in the Middle East is soon resolved, others warned “lenders are petrified that history will repeat itself and the cost of borrowing increases sharply like it did in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.” One said “average fixed mortgage rates could realistically push towards 5.25%–5.5%” if funding costs stay elevated.
Moneyfacts also revealed that the average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.09%. This is up from 4.96% on Friday 6 March 2026 and now at its highest level since 26 June 2025 (5.09%).
Meanwhile, the Overall Average Moneyfacts Mortgage rate opened today at 5.04%. This is up from 4.91% on Friday and now at its highest level since 7 August 2025 (5.04%).
It also noted that, over the past 48 hours, 472 residential mortgage products have been withdrawn from the market. This is around 6.5% of the total residential mortgage market, which now stands at 7,164 available products.
It is the biggest fall in available mortgage product numbers since the aftermath of the mini-Budget in September 2022. That saw the withdrawal of 935 residential mortgage products on 27 September 2022. This was a little over 25% of available mortgage products at that time.
Turbulent market
Adam French, Head of Consumer Finance at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said: “Recent days have been some of the most turbulent in the UK mortgage market since the aftermath of the September 2022 mini-Budget. In the last 48 hours almost 500 residential mortgage products have been withdrawn as lenders reacted to rapidly rising swap rates.
“However, the scale is nowhere near the shock seen in late September 2022 when 935 products, which accounted for more than a quarter of the market at the time, disappeared in a single day.
“Many of these deals are likely to return within the next few days and weeks as lenders adjust their pricing to higher rate expectations.
“It’s unwelcome news for borrowers, as the prospect of falling mortgage rates has quickly given way to rate rises. How far they could go is now heavily dependent on how global markets and inflation expectations evolve as conflict in the Middle East unfolds.”
Brokers were also concerned by the speed at which rates have risen and, while some fear rates could continue to rise, others believe it could yet prove a “market wobble”.
Lenders petrified
Jack Tutton, Director at Fareham-based SJ Mortgages, believes lenders are nervous. He said: “Lenders are petrified that history will repeat itself and the cost of borrowing increases sharply like it did in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and the impact on energy prices that this had.
“We have seen some lenders making significant increases, with both TSB and Accord reacting yesterday with large rate increases, some rates increasing by as much as 0.75%.
“Whilst there has been an increase in swap rates since the start of the conflict, it hasn’t been by as much as this and clearly shows that lenders are worried about the impact of the war moving forward.”
Louis Mason, Communications Director at London-based Oportfolio Mortgages, believes we are still a long way off the events of 2022: “The move back above 5% shows how quickly mortgage pricing can implode when swap rates spike, forcing lenders to pull deals and reprice more or less overnight.
“While the scale of withdrawals sounds dramatic, it’s still far from the market shock we saw in 2022 and many products should return once pricing adjusts, or at least that is the hope.
“If funding costs stay elevated, average fixed mortgage rates could realistically push towards 5.25%–5.5% in the near term unfortunately, meaning borrowers hoping for a steady fall in rates may need to reset their expectations for the time being at least.”
High-fives
Omer Mehmet, Managing Director at Welling-based Trinity Finance, added: “High fives are the last thing borrowers will be giving lenders as rates climb above 5%.
“Of course, in such a volatile economic climate, what lenders are doing is perfectly understandable. To say events are moving at speed with no clear direction is probably an understatement right now.”
Nouran Moustafa, Practice Principal & IFA at Roxton Wealth, was struck by how quickly the mortgage landscape has changed: “What stands out to me is not just the level of rates, but how quickly sentiment has turned.
“Only days ago the conversation was about gradual improvement, and now the market is back in reactive mode, with lenders pulling products and repricing at speed. That is what creates anxiety for borrowers.
“My feeling is that if swap rates stay where they are, or move higher again, we could realistically see mainstream fixed rates rise by another 0.20% to 0.40% in the near term, with some lenders moving even more aggressively depending on funding costs and appetite.
“I do not think we are looking at a repeat of the mini-Budget, but it is still a sharp reminder that mortgage pricing can move brutally fast when markets are unsettled.
“If volatility calms, some products will return, just priced higher. If it does not, borrowers need to be prepared for a more nervous market where rates stay elevated and lenders remain quick to pull and reissue deals.”
Don’t panic
Katy Eatenton, Mortgage & Protection Specialist at St Albans-based Lifetime Wealth Management, believes it’s not a time to panic, but equally says people should not procrastinate.
She said: “The market is volatile at the moment and lenders are reacting quickly. However, this means that when things stablise lenders will work just as quickly to get rates back down to the levels they are at.
“There has been a massive push over the last couple of years to make lending affordable and accessible to more borrowers, so it isn’t a time to panic.
“That being said, it is also no time to procrastinate. Lock in rates now, while they are still relatively low in comparison to the past three years”
Repricing, not panic
Mike Staton, Director at Mansfield-based Staton Mortgages, also said it’s not a time for borrowers to over-react.
He continued: “Rates moving back above 5% is being driven by swap rate volatility off the back of oil prices, global conflict and inflation fears, not because the UK housing market has suddenly fallen apart. Yes, lenders have pulled products, but this is nowhere near 2022 levels. This is repricing, not panic.
“Average rates will likely go higher, and if markets stay nervous we could see them hit 5.25%–5.5%, but I don’t see a return to 6%+ unless inflation runs out of control again.
“The Bank of England knows the economy is fragile, the government knows the housing market can’t take another shock, and lenders are far quicker to react now than they used to be. Right now this looks like a market wobble, not a market crisis.”
Moneyfacts data
Sarah Fox-Clinch, Director at Fox Davidson a broker, said the Moneyfacts data needs to be put into context: “While the averages have risen to 5.01% for two-year fixes and 5.09% for five-year fixes, it is important to remember that Moneyfacts averages include the entire market.
“Therefore they are including higher loan to value rates, specialist products and rates with no product fee and a higher interest rate.
“For many borrowers, particularly those with lower loan-to-value ratios and those prepared to pay a product fee for the rate, the most competitive mortgage rates remain well below 5%.
“The withdrawal of around 470 products over the past 48 hours is also consistent with lenders pausing briefly to reprice as swap rates move.
“We saw similar behaviour during previous periods of market volatility, and many of these products are likely to return quickly with adjusted pricing.
“Compared with the market disruption following the mini-Budget in 2022, the scale of these withdrawals is far smaller and reflects normal repricing activity rather than a structural tightening of credit.”
