RETAIL sales fell by 0.4% in February as “wet weather and a post-January pullback left households spending cautiously”.
The quantity of goods bought, or volume, in retail sales is estimated to have risen by 0.7% in the three months to February 2026, compared with the three months to November 2025, new data shows.
The rise was mainly because of better sales for non-store retailers in the three months to February 2026, following a weaker November 2025, as well as strong artwork sales volumes in January 2026.
Retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 0.4% in February 2026, following a rise of 2% in January 2026, and a rise of 0.1% in December 2025.
Supermarkets’ sales volumes fell back following a rise in January 2026. Non-store retailers’ volumes also fell in February, with retailers suggesting that consumers brought forward their spending to January 2026, to maximise on discounting during the period.
Shoppers are trading down to cheaper alternatives to cut costs
Marty Bauer, senior ecommerce expert at Omnisend, said the average order value has gone down in its research.
He added: “A lot has changed since the end of the January sales, and the current state of global affairs will undoubtedly have a ripple effect in the months ahead.
“We are already seeing a clear drop of around 12% in the average order value, despite an increase in the number of items being bought.
“This suggests that shoppers are trading down to cheaper alternatives to cut costs. Retailers will need to continue proving value if they want to maintain momentum.”
Nicholas Found, Head of Commercial Insights at Retail Economics, said people are being more cautious with their money.
He added: “February exposed a retail market where spending was narrow, selective and event-led, including Valentine’s Day giving a modest lift to gifting categories, ahead of new fears over inflation and the economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East.
“Wet weather and a post-January pullback left households spending cautiously, buying with intent and waiting for compelling reasons to open their wallets. This year is shaping up as a battle for market share against lacklustre economic growth. Retailers are facing a tough operating environment of fragile demand, rising labour costs, and a growing need to invest in productivity.
“Consumer spending is still there, but it is far more concentrated and fragmented. The winners combine sharp value perception, genuine differentiation and disciplined execution across channels. Strong results from Next this week demonstrate what’s still possible. In this environment, retailers need a much sharper understanding of who their customers are and what they value.”
A post-January pullback left households spending cautiously
Jennie Prewett, Founder and Trustee at Bristol-based Incredible Kids, said she believed rising prices are leading people to hold onto their cash.
She added: “Normal people are horrified by the price of everything. When even a lunchtime meal-deal costs over £7 people stop shopping. The most vulnerable in society can’t afford the price of basic supplies and it’s a scary place to be.”
Justin Moy, Managing Director at Chelmsford-based EHF Mortgages, said these figures don’t even take into account the inflationary fears from the Iran war which started at the end of February.
He added: “More narrative to highlight how poorly the government has grasped the economic situation, and with these pre-conflict statistics, you can only imagine that the public will spend even less in March and for the foreseeable future.
“Our economy is both fragile and faltering, and will only get worse while Donald Trump dithers over his next move, and the UK can do nothing but wait.”
Colette Mason, Author & AI Consultant at London-based Clever Clogs AI, said February’s dip isn’t a blip.
She added: “January’s bump was people grabbing discounts before they disappeared. The three-month trend looks steady until you ask why February fell back. Retailers are telling us consumers front-loaded their spending into January sales because households make calculated decisions about when to spend, because they’re not sure what’s coming next.
“Job insecurity is doing untold damage right now. AI transformation is reshaping whole sectors without anyone being honest about the transition costs and who will win and who will lose. Business rates, energy, wage bills: costs that get passed on or absorbed as margin cuts, neither of which helps the person at the till.
“The non-store retail lift tells you something too. People shopping online at 11pm aren’t browsing in high spirits. They’re optimising, waiting to snipe the product at the right price. February’s dip isn’t a blip. It’s what cautious looks like when the economic ground feels unstable and the economy keeps producing new reasons to hold back.”
