RETAIL sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in October 2025, following an increase of 0.7% in September 2025, according to official data published this morning. Though some retailers blamed Black Friday, experts said the real cause of the collapse is the upcoming Budget.
The 1.1% contraction was the first monthly fall since May 2025. Supermarkets, clothing, and mail order retailers fell in October 2025, which some retailers attributed to consumers delaying their spending in the lead up to Black Friday.
In the three months to October 2025 compared with the three months to July 2025, retail sales were estimated to have risen by 1.1%.
“Clothing store sales rounded off a strong performance in those three months, peaking in September, while computer and telecommunication retailers rose across September and October 2025.
Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist, ONS, said: “Retail sales grew strongly in the three months to October. This was mainly due to strong clothing sales throughout, peaking in September. Tech stores did well, with strong trading from new product launches continuing into October.
“However, in October alone monthly sales fell back for the first time since May. Supermarkets, clothing stores and online retailers all saw slower sales, with feedback from some retailers that consumers were waiting for November’s Black Friday deals.”
Nicholas Found, Head of Commercial Insights at Retail Economics, said the Budget and not just Black Friday, will have played a role in October’s fall: “Spending on retail is flat as consumers anxiously wait to hear their fortunes in the long-awaited Budget, particularly denting the performance of clothing in October as shoppers delay spending ahead of peak trading.
“Concerns of tax rises in next week’s Budget have unsettled household confidence. But should the Chancellor relieve fears, Black Friday is well-placed to kick-start spending in retail’s busiest period of the year.
“But in a market where wins increasingly come at a competitor’s expense, retailers will need to deliver clear value, differentiation and frictionless execution to be best placed to capture spending during peak season.”
David Belle, Founder and Trader at Fink Money, agreed that the figures are less a reflection of Black Friday stalling but an imminent fiscal onslaught: “Black Friday isn’t the main reason for the collapse in retail sales last month, the Budget is.
“People are battening down the hatches ahead of what they suspect will be a fiscal onslaught. Consumers aren’t buying because they are scared about the Budget.”
Photo by Samuel Regan-Asante on Unsplash
