BROKERS have warned that a hawkish vote split or set of minutes at Thursday’s key Bank of England rate decision could see the mortgage rate cuts of the past fortnight or so reversed, even if, as expected, the base rate is left on hold.
Most expect the Monetary Policy Committee to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, as the Bank of England is not just battling rising inflation due to the war in the Middle East but a slowing economy where business sentiment is on its knees.
But experts said that even if a hold is the outcome, mortgage rates could still head north again if markets believe policymakers see inflation as more of a threat than previously thought.
Forensic detail
Shaun Sturgess, Director at Swansea-based Sturgess Mortgage Solutions, said: “Even if, as expected, Thursday’s decision is a hold, lenders will be going through the minutes in forensic detail.
“If markets believe that the base rate looks set to be increased in future meetings then swap rates, which are used to price fixed rate mortgages, could once again start to rise.
“If that happens, the cuts of the past fortnight or so could be quickly reversed.
“This could all happen very quickly and borrowers should be aware that the best rates currently available could be gone in a matter of days if lenders don’t like what they see in the minutes or the vote split.”
Richard Davidson, Mortgage Advisor at onlinemortgageadvisor.co.uk, agreed: “With no move expected and a lack of clarity in the markets, the words and vote numbers from Thursday’s meeting will be critical.
“Sentiment is brittle so any pessimism may be taken as a sign we are not through the uncertainty, and we could see that priced into mortgage rates within the next few days.”
Perfect moment
Tracey Dixon, Owner at Cardiff-based Pure Mortgage and Protection, also expects the Bank of England to leave rates on hold, but she urged borrowers against trying to time the market when it comes to rates.
“For borrowers, waiting for the perfect moment rarely works. The market is already shifting, and the best opportunities often come before the headlines catch up.”
But one property expert, Babek Ismayil, CEO at homebuying platform OneDome, said that even if the Bank of England is hawkish and mortgage rates do start to rise again, that climate at least makes it easier for buyers to negotiate even harder on price.
He said: “The uncertainty around mortgage rates over the past eight weeks has created a strong environment for buyers to negotiate hard with sellers and snap up property at a much reduced price.
“People need to remember that securing a competitive price for a property can often mitigate the impact of higher mortgage rates, which they can remortgage off in the years ahead anyway.
“So if rates do rise again, so will the negotiating power of buyers.”
Photo by Samuel Regan-Asante on Unsplash
