PETROL prices at the pump are heading down despite the Iran war raging on – but experts are warning: “Do not be fooled by a slight reprieve in fuel costs.”
The average cost of petrol is now 156.82p a litre, down from highs of 158.17p on April 13th.
The price is still way above the level of 131.71p before the war started.
This comes as tension remains high between the US and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz still not flowing freely.
US President Donald Trump said today that the US is pausing its planned operation to guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
He added that the pause will last “for a short period of time” to see if a peace deal with Iran “can be finalised”.
The price of Brent Crude oil is still over $100 a barrel, way above the level of $70 before the war started.
Experts warned drivers to not expect the price of petrol to come down much further.
Do not be fooled by a slight reprieve in fuel costs
Samuel Mather-Holgate, Managing Director & IFA at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial, said he expects petrol costs to remain high.
He added: “Do not be fooled by a slight reprieve in fuel costs. With Captain Calamity in the White House, anything is possible and despite Marco Rubio declaring all the US goals have been achieved, Iran holds all of Trump’s infamous cards.
“This conflict is nowhere near over, and the possibility of escalation is not just a possibility but a probability. £2 per litre is not off the table, and motorists should buckle up for a bumpy ride.”
The market remains on a knife-edge
Tony Redondo, Founder at Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, said a return to pre-war levels is unlikely.
He added: “Petrol prices dipping while oil stays above $100 may seem contradictory, but it’s a classic case of market lag. Pump prices reflect wholesale refined fuel costs and retailer margins rather than crude directly, the so-called ‘rocket and feather’ effect, where prices spike instantly on bad news but fall slowly as conditions stabilise.
“The current dip to 156.82p suggests the risk premium is easing as traders price in a potential pause in the Strait of Hormuz blockade. However, a return to pre-war levels near 140p remains unlikely while Brent stays above $100, with most analysts placing the floor around 150p. Should the conflict escalate or the blockade tighten, prices could surge toward 170p.
“The Strait carries roughly 20% of global oil, so even with supply physically flowing, traders price in insurance against a sudden shutdown. Recent headlines about a pause offer only temporary relief. The market remains on a knife-edge until a permanent diplomatic resolution is reached.”
Photo by Philippe Baret on Unsplash.
