ANDY Burnham winning the Labour leadership “will be bad news for borrowers” as financial experts warn of a coming “debt spiral”.
Experts claim that if the Makerfield by-election is won by Burnham, and if he proceeds to beat Keir Starmer in a leadership contest, Labour would move further to the left, leading to markets reacting negatively and gilt yields and swap rates soaring.
This would lead to mortgage rates going up, directly affecting borrowers, they add.
When his candidacy in Makerfield was confirmed, 10-year gilt yields hit their highest level since 1998, briefly touching 5.137%.
Samuel Mather-Holgate, Managing Director & IFA at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial, said “things will get worse” financially.
He added: “Just 70,000 people will be deciding the next MP for Makerfield. However, more than that, they’ll be deciding who the next prime minister is and what the rate for your mortgage is when you come to renew.
“If Burnham wins in the North, he will bring in a more left wing chancellor who will likely flex the fiscal rules and gilt rates will soar.”
There could be a debt spiral
Chris Barry, Director at London-based Thomas Legal, said mortgage rates will go up if Burnham gets into No 10.
He added: “Markets haven’t reacted positively to the potential uncertainty to come over the future Prime Minister. When Labour won the last General Election, markets reacted well as their campaign manifesto was rather centre for a Labour government. Burnham has a history of thinking even more left and more traditional Labour, which will almost certainly increase bond yields and mortgage rates.
“Burnham is retaining the term ‘working people’, however his explanation of the term captures an even smaller group than it does currently. Work hard and earn well will lead to more taxes, work less and earn comparatively more. The model will lead to lower growth and higher inflation, both of which are bad news for borrowers.”
Martin Rayner, Mortgage broker and financial adviser at Compton Financial Services, said there are signs that Burnham is being pragmatic.
He added: “Andy Burnham winning Makerfield would rattle borrowers if it fuels a leftward leadership challenge. Markets could punish any fiscal shift with higher gilt yields and swaps, lifting mortgage costs. Panic is premature. He has U-turned on EU rejoin and radical pledges.
“This signals pragmatism. We’re far from Prime Minister Burnham. However, if he pushes a firmer left-wing agenda, the implications could be severe. Markets would punish tax-and-spend moves with soaring yields and swaps. This drives mortgage rates sharply higher and squeezes household budgets. The UK tax burden heads for its highest level since the 1940s. Extra hikes to fund debt and benefits risk a vicious cycle.
“Expect failing businesses, rising unemployment, higher welfare costs, and heavier pressure on the tax base. For borrowers, the damage would be direct and lasting. Higher borrowing costs, weaker growth, and lower affordability would follow.”
Bad news for borrowers
Rob Mansfield, Independent Financial Advisor at Tonbridge-based Rootes Wealth Management, warned of a “debt spiral”.
He said: “We already have a government with high levels of tax and spend and while that might be feasible in the short term to try and get on top of the deficit, it damages long term growth. If a new leader increases that spend then there could be a debt spiral where more debt is needed but the markets are sceptical and so demand higher rates.
“It could be very difficult to get out of that mode and recent governments seem to run scared of even thinking about cuts. There is a tightrope being walked and it’s across some very hot lava.”
Ben Perks, Managing Director at Stourbridge-based Orchard Financial Advisers, said the instability of the leadership challenge could scare the markets.
He added: “Anything that rocks the boat can cause mortgage rates to wobble. The Burnham coup will undoubtedly make markets react and that will push rates northward. Our industry thrives on stability, something that we haven’t enjoyed for five or six years now.
“But amid the tumultuous twists and turns, the mortgage market, lenders and brokers have proven to be incredibly resilient. So the impact of a changing PM would be relatively short term, but it could hit many borrowers in the pocket along the way. Can we just have a few boring years where nothing happens and things tick along nicely?”
Craig Fish, Director at London-based Lodestone Mortgages, said the markets have already shown evidence of being spooked by Burnham’s possible Prime Minister run.
He added: “Andy Burnham winning Makerfield on 18 June would be bad news for borrowers, and markets have already told us why. When his candidacy was confirmed, 10-year gilt yields hit their highest level since 1998, briefly touching 5.137%. That is not a coincidence. Markets are pricing in the risk of a looser fiscal approach, higher borrowing, and a 50p top rate of income tax.
“Swap rates follow gilts, and swap rates are what lenders use to price fixed rate mortgages. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already warned the UK on borrowing levels under the current government. A shift to the left of that would only add to the pressure. Anyone approaching a remortgage in the second half of 2026 should be paying close attention to what happens on 18 June.”
Michelle Lawson, Director at Fareham-based Lawson Financial, said the way ahead could get a “little stormy”.
She added: “This election is likely going to determine the next PM. The money markets don’t react well to uncertainty and instability which we’ve had in abundance for a sustained period of time.
“While the nation is craving a miracle, this may not be the answer. We just need a leader who can lead and read the room. The decisions should be taken seriously and not revengefully or flippantly. Watch this space as it could get a little stormy.”
Photo by Giu Vicente on Unsplash.
